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France

Group I · currently 1st

At the 2026 World Cup, France has a 100% chance to advance from Group I and a 9.7% chance to win the title, per a 10,000-run simulation.

Latest result · 6/26/2026

100%
Chance to advance
9.7%
Title chance
2070
Model strength rating

Strength rating = the Elo rating the model uses (one input to its probabilities), not an official ranking.

Group I table

#TeamPPtsGDAdv
1France39+8100%
2Norway36+1100%
3Senegal33+20%
4Iraq30-110%

Top two advance directly; third place enters the best-thirds race for 8 spots. Advance chance from 10,000 Monte Carlo sims.

Next match

No upcoming fixtures

Recent form

WANorway4-1WHIraq3-0WHSenegal3-1

Official squad

Head coach: Didier Deschamps (France)Avg age: 26.6Avg height: 185 cmTotal caps: 803

Goalkeepers (3)

#PlayerClubAgeCapsGoals
1SAMBA BriceStade Rennais FC (FRA)3240
16MAIGNAN MikeAC Milan (ITA)30400
23RISSER RobinRC Lens (FRA)2100

Defenders (9)

#PlayerClubAgeCapsGoals
2GUSTO MaloChelsea FC (ENG)23110
3DIGNE LucasAston Villa FC (ENG)32580
4UPAMECANO DayotFC Bayern München (GER)27382
5KOUNDE JulesFC Barcelona (ESP)27480
15KONATE IbrahimaLiverpool FC (ENG)27280
17SALIBA WilliamArsenal FC (ENG)25320
19HERNANDEZ TheoAl Hilal SC (KSA)28442
21HERNANDEZ LucasParis Saint-Germain (FRA)30420
26LACROIX MaxenceCrystal Palace FC (ENG)2640

Midfielders (7)

#PlayerClubAgeCapsGoals
6KONE ManuAS Roma (ITA)25140
8TCHOUAMENI AurelienReal Madrid C. F. (ESP)26463
13KANTE NgoloFenerbahçe SK (TUR)35692
14RABIOT AdrienAC Milan (ITA)31597
18ZAIRE-EMERY WarrenParis Saint-Germain (FRA)20111
24CHERKI RayanManchester City FC (ENG)2272
25AKLIOUCHE MaghnesAS Monaco (FRA)2491

Forwards (7)

#PlayerClubAgeCapsGoals
7DEMBELE OusmaneParis Saint-Germain (FRA)29597
9THURAM MarcusFC Internazionale Milano (ITA)28343
10MBAPPE KylianReal Madrid C. F. (ESP)279856
11OLISE MichaelFC Bayern München (GER)24177
12BARCOLA BradleyParis Saint-Germain (FRA)23203
20DOUE DesireParis Saint-Germain (FRA)2172
22MATETA Jean-PhilippeCrystal Palace FC (ENG)2842

Official 26-player World Cup 2026 squad; caps and goals are career totals for the national team.

🧮 How can France still advance? Open the calculator →🧮 See full Group I scenarios →📖 How World Cup 2026 qualification works

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations (public forecasting data + Elo), refreshed hourly

Related commentary

  • France vs Senegal: Les Bleus Flex Their Muscles in Group IFrance cruise to a 3-1 win, shifting their advancement probability from 92% to 99% while Senegal slides from 71% to 58% in our forecast.