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Running 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations…
万次蒙特卡洛模拟计算中（首次约 8 秒）…
📊 Advancement & Title Probabilities
Updated --:--
⚽ Top scorers · Golden Boot race →At the 2026 World Cup group stage, a 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation puts Spain on top with a 29.0% chance to win the title; 32 teams currently have a 50%+ chance to reach the Round of 32.
🏆 Title chances — Top 12
 Spain | 29.0% | |
 Argentina | 19.8% | |
 England | 13.3% | |
 France | 9.7% | |
 Colombia | 4.8% | |
 Netherlands | 3.3% | |
 Brazil | 3.2% | |
 Portugal | 2.7% | |
 Belgium | 2.6% | |
 Norway | 2.3% | |
 Switzerland | 1.9% | |
 Germany | 1.4% |
📈 Biggest advancement swings
Teams whose chance to advance moved most recently
Tracking snapshots — trends appear once 2–3 days of data build up.
Upcoming match win probabilities
Best third-placed race (top 8 advance)
Ranked on actual results so far; below the line = currently out
1
EgyptG4pts · GD+12
Congo DRK4pts · GD+13
SwedenF4pts · GD+04
EcuadorE4pts · GD+05
GhanaL4pts · GD+06
Bosnia-HerzegovinaB4pts · GD-17
AlgeriaJ4pts · GD-28
ParaguayD4pts · GD-29
SenegalI3pts · GD+210
South KoreaA3pts · GD-111
ScotlandC3pts · GD-312
UruguayH2pts · GD-1
🧮 Try it yourself: third-place scenario calculator →Full best third-placed ranking & Round-of-32 matchups →EgyptG4pts · GD+12Congo DRK4pts · GD+13SwedenF4pts · GD+04EcuadorE4pts · GD+05GhanaL4pts · GD+06Bosnia-HerzegovinaB4pts · GD-17AlgeriaJ4pts · GD-28ParaguayD4pts · GD-29SenegalI3pts · GD+210South KoreaA3pts · GD-111ScotlandC3pts · GD-312UruguayH2pts · GD-1Chance to advance by group
Group A
 Mexico | 9pts | 100% |
 South Africa | 4pts | 100% |
| South Korea | 3pts | 0% |
 Czechia | 1pts | 0% |
Group B
| Switzerland | 7pts | 100% |
 Canada | 4pts | 100% |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 4pts | 100% |
 Qatar | 1pts | 0% |
Group C
| Brazil | 7pts | 100% |
 Morocco | 7pts | 100% |
| Scotland | 3pts | 0% |
 Haiti | 0pts | 0% |
Group D
 United States | 6pts | 100% |
 Australia | 4pts | 100% |
| Paraguay | 4pts | 100% |
 Turkey | 3pts | 0% |
Group E
| Germany | 6pts | 100% |
 Ivory Coast | 6pts | 100% |
| Ecuador | 4pts | 100% |
 Curaçao | 1pts | 0% |
Group F
| Netherlands | 7pts | 100% |
 Japan | 5pts | 100% |
| Sweden | 4pts | 100% |
 Tunisia | 0pts | 0% |
Group G
| Belgium | 5pts | 100% |
 Iran | 5pts | 100% |
| Egypt | 4pts | 100% |
 New Zealand | 1pts | 0% |
Group H
| Spain | 7pts | 100% |
 Cape Verde Islands | 3pts | 100% |
| Uruguay | 2pts | 0% |
 Saudi Arabia | 2pts | 0% |
Group I
| France | 9pts | 100% |
| Norway | 6pts | 100% |
| Senegal | 3pts | 0% |
 Iraq | 0pts | 0% |
Group J
| Argentina | 9pts | 100% |
 Austria | 4pts | 100% |
| Algeria | 4pts | 100% |
 Jordan | 0pts | 0% |
Group K
| Colombia | 7pts | 100% |
| Portugal | 5pts | 100% |
| Congo DR | 4pts | 100% |
 Uzbekistan | 0pts | 0% |
Group L
| England | 7pts | 100% |
 Croatia | 6pts | 100% |
| Ghana | 4pts | 100% |
 Panama | 0pts | 0% |