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Running 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations…
万次蒙特卡洛模拟计算中（首次约 8 秒）…
📊 Advancement & Title Probabilities
Updated --:--
⚽ Top scorers · Golden Boot race →At the 2026 World Cup group stage, a 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation puts Argentina on top with a 17.8% chance to win the title; 33 teams currently have a 50%+ chance to reach the Round of 32.
AI note · for fun only
With the World Cup just around the corner, Argentina holds a 17.8% win probability while Spain and France follow closely, promising a thrilling battle for glory.
🏆 Title chances — Top 12
Argentina17.8%
Spain16.4%
France13.9%
England10.7%
Colombia6.5%
Brazil4.2%
Portugal3.8%
Netherlands3.1%
Norway3.1%
Germany3.0%
Switzerland2.1%
Japan2.0%
📈 Biggest advancement swings
Teams whose chance to advance moved most recently
Tracking snapshots — trends appear once 2–3 days of data build up.
Upcoming match win probabilities
United States
Australia
Scotland
MoroccoBest third-placed race (top 8 advance)
Ranked on actual results so far; below the line = currently out
Belgium
Congo DRChance to advance by group
Group A
Mexico6pts · 100%
South Korea3pts · 93%
Czechia1pts · 22%
South Africa1pts · 16%Group B
Canada4pts · 100%Switzerland4pts · 100%
Haiti
Turkey
Paraguay
Sweden
Ivory Coast
Ecuador
Curaçao
Tunisia
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Uruguay
Cape Verde Islands
New Zealand
Egypt
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Panama
Senegal
Jordan
Qatar
Iraq
Austria
Algeria
Uzbekistan
Ghana
Croatia