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Match-by-match analysis powered by our probability model — what each result did to the teams' chances.
The United States romped to a 4-1 victory, boosting their advancement probability from 77% to 97% while leaving Paraguay’s hopes reeling.
Scotland secures a vital victory in Haiti vs Scotland, surging from 66% to 85% in their probability to advance to the next stage.
Australia surged into qualification contention after their 2-0 win over Turkey, shifting their advance probability from 45% to 86% in a major Group D shake-up.
Ivory Coast defied the 16% pre-match probability to defeat Ecuador, shifting their advancement chances from 64% to 92%.
Sweden cruised to a 5-1 victory over Tunisia, surging their advancement probability from 53% to 94% as Tunisia’s chances plummeted to 11%.
A shock draw in Spain vs Cape Verde Islands sees Spain's advancement probability dip from 96% to 92% as the underdogs surge from 38% to 51%.
Saudi Arabia defied the 23% draw probability in the Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay match, lifting their advancement chances from 35% to 45% after a hard-fought 1-1.
Iran's advance probability slipped from 75% to 64% after a surprise 2-2 draw, while New Zealand saw their own chances bump up from 35% to 38%.
France cruise to a 3-1 win, shifting their advancement probability from 92% to 99% while Senegal slides from 71% to 58% in our forecast.
Switzerland cruised to a 4-1 victory in the switzerland vs bosnia-herzegovina clash, boosting their advancement probability from 85% to 100%.
The 1-1 draw in Czechia vs South Africa sent shockwaves through Group A, as Czechia's advance probability plummeted from 45% to 22%.
Norway flexes their muscles in a 1-4 rout over Iraq, surging their advancement probability from 79% to 97% as the group landscape shifts dramatically.
Canada cruises to victory, jumping from 82% to 100% to advance, while Qatar's outlook drops from 37% to 21% after a heavy 6-0 defeat.
A decisive 1-3 victory for Colombia sees their advancement probability surge from 89% to 98% following the Uzbekistan vs Colombia match.
Ghana defied the forecast with a 1-0 win, surging their chance to advance from 25% to 67% at the expense of Panama.
Austria asserted their dominance in the 3-1 win over Jordan, a result that surged their chance of advancing from 69% to 92% in our model.
Argentina cements its knockout spot in the Argentina vs Algeria clash, as its title probability climbs from 16% to 17% following the 3-0 victory.