Event Commentary

Match-by-match analysis powered by our probability model — what each result did to the teams' chances.

• Eliminated2026-06-30

  Curaçao vs Ivory Coast: The Elephants Seal Their Path Forward

  Ivory Coast secured a crucial 0-2 victory against Curaçao, shifting their advancement chance from 94% to 100% while ending Curaçao's tournament dream.

• Upset2026-06-30

  A tactical deadlock in Cape Verde Islands vs Saudi Arabia

  The 0-0 draw in Cape Verde Islands vs Saudi Arabia saw Cape Verde Islands advance to 100% chance to reach the next stage, while Saudi Arabia dropped to <1%.

• Upset2026-06-30

  Ecuador vs Germany Result: A Stunning Upset in Group E

  Ecuador defied the 27% pre-match win probability to defeat Germany 2-1, sending their own advancement chances surging from 27% to 100%.

• Eliminated2026-06-30

  Clinical Mexico crushes Czechia vs Mexico in Group A clash

  A dominant 0-3 victory for Mexico sees their title hopes hold steady at 2%, while Czechia's advancement chance plummets from 19% to <1%.