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The 2026 World Cup has 48 teams in 12 groups of four. The top two of every group (24 teams) plus the 8 best third-placed teams advance to a new 32-team knockout round (the Round of 32). In other words: a team can lose one match, draw one, finish third in its group, and still advance — and in theory go on to win the whole thing.
104 matches in total. Group stage: 12 groups of 4. After the group stage, the top 2 of each group qualify directly (24 teams) plus the 8 highest-ranked of the 12 third-placed teams (8 teams) = 32 teams in the Round of 32, then the Round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final — all single-elimination.
Within a group, teams are ranked by, in order:
The 12 third-placed teams are compared across groups, and the best 8 advance. Because they come from different groups and have not played each other, there is no head-to-head step here; the criteria are, in order:
Exactly which 8 third-placed teams advance, and which Round-of-32 slot each takes, is set by a pre-determined FIFA table based on which groups' third-placed teams qualify.
Note: fair-play points require yellow/red-card data. Where that data is unavailable, this site's model approximates the lowest tie-breakers with its model strength rating (labelled on every page) — this barely affects advancement chances, since it only applies when every earlier criterion is tied.
The 8 fixed “group winner vs a third-placed team” slots from FIFA's pre-tournament bracket. Each group winner faces the third-placed team from one of the groups listed — never a side from its own group:
| Match | Group winner | 3rd-placed from one of |
|---|---|---|
| M74 | E | A, B, C, D, F |
| M77 | I | C, D, F, G, H |
| M79 | A | C, E, F, H, I |
| M80 | L | E, H, I, J, K |
| M81 | D | B, E, F, I, J |
| M82 | G | A, E, H, I, J |
| M85 | B | E, F, G, I, J |
| M87 | K | D, E, I, J, L |
Flip any remaining result in the live scenario calculator and instantly see how all 12 group tables and the best-thirds race change — or read the model's chance to advance and to win the title for every team.