Japan
Group F · currently 2nd
At the 2026 World Cup, Japan has a 100% chance to advance from Group F and a 0.6% chance to win the title, per a 10,000-run simulation.
Latest result · 6/26/2026
100%
Chance to advance
0.6%
Title chance
1888
Model strength rating
Strength rating = the Elo rating the model uses (one input to its probabilities), not an official ranking.
Group F table
| # | Team | P | Pts | GD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Netherlands | 3 | 7 | +6 | 100% |
| 2 |  Japan | 3 | 5 | +4 | 100% |
| 3 |  Sweden | 3 | 4 | 0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Tunisia | 3 | 0 | -10 | 0% |
Top two advance directly; third place enters the best-thirds race for 8 spots. Advance chance from 10,000 Monte Carlo sims.
Next match
No upcoming fixtures
Recent form
Official squad
Head coach: Hajime Moriyasu (Japan)Avg age: 26.9Avg height: 182 cmTotal caps: 823
Goalkeepers (3)
| # | Player | Club | Age | Caps | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUZUKI Zion | Parma (ITA) | 23 | 26 | 0 |
| 12 | OSAKO Keisuke | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (JPN) | 26 | 11 | 0 |
| 23 | HAYAKAWA Tomoki | Kashima Antlers (JPN) | 27 | 4 | 0 |
Defenders (9)
| # | Player | Club | Age | Caps | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SUGAWARA Yukinari | SV Werder Bremen (GER) | 25 | 23 | 2 |
| 3 | TANIGUCHI Shogo | Sint-Truiden VV (BEL) | 34 | 40 | 1 |
| 4 | ITAKURA Kou | AFC Ajax (NED) | 29 | 41 | 3 |
| 5 | NAGATOMO Yuto | FC Tokyo (JPN) | 39 | 145 | 4 |
| 16 | WATANABE Tsuyoshi | Feyenoord Rotterdam (NED) | 29 | 13 | 0 |
| 20 | SEKO Ayumu | Le Havre AC (FRA) | 26 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 | ITO Hiroki | FC Bayern München (GER) | 27 | 26 | 1 |
| 22 | TOMIYASU Takehiro | AFC Ajax (NED) | 27 | 44 | 1 |
| 25 | SUZUKI Junnosuke | FC København (DEN) | 22 | 6 | 0 |
Midfielders (9)
| # | Player | Club | Age | Caps | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | TANAKA Ao | Leeds United FC (ENG) | 27 | 38 | 8 |
| 8 | KUBO Takefusa | Real Sociedad (ESP) | 25 | 50 | 7 |
| 10 | DOAN Ritsu | Eintracht Frankfurt (GER) | 27 | 67 | 11 |
| 11 | MAEDA Daizen | Celtic FC (SCO) | 28 | 29 | 5 |
| 13 | NAKAMURA Keito | Stade Reims (FRA) | 25 | 27 | 12 |
| 14 | ITO Junya | KRC Genk (BEL) | 33 | 70 | 15 |
| 15 | KAMADA Daichi | Crystal Palace FC (ENG) | 29 | 50 | 13 |
| 17 | SUZUKI Yuito | SC Freiburg (GER) | 24 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 | SANO Kaishu | 1. FSV Mainz 05 (GER) | 25 | 15 | 0 |
Forwards (5)
| # | Player | Club | Age | Caps | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | MACHINO Shuto | Borussia Mönchengladbach (GER) | 26 | 14 | 5 |
| 9 | GOTO Keisuke | Sint-Truiden VV (BEL) | 21 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | UEDA Ayase | Feyenoord Rotterdam (NED) | 27 | 41 | 16 |
| 19 | OGAWA Koki | NEC Nijmegen (NED) | 28 | 16 | 11 |
| 26 | SHIOGAI Kento | VfL Wolfsburg (GER) | 21 | 3 | 0 |
Official 26-player World Cup 2026 squad; caps and goals are career totals for the national team.
🧮 How can Japan still advance? Open the calculator →🧮 See full Group F scenarios →📖 How World Cup 2026 qualification works10,000 Monte Carlo simulations (public forecasting data + Elo), refreshed hourly
Related commentary
- A Stalemate in Japan vs Sweden Shakes Up the Group F ForecastA gritty draw in Japan vs Sweden means Sweden jumps from 89% to 100% in their quest to advance, while Japan's title hopes dip from 2% to 1%.
- Japan Cruises Past Tunisia in Group F Tunisia vs Japan ResultJapan cruises to the knockout stages as the 0-4 result against Tunisia shifts their advancement probability from 90% to 100%.