Japan
Group F · currently 3rd
At the 2026 World Cup, Japan has a 88% chance to advance from Group F and a 2.0% chance to win the title, per a 10,000-run simulation.
Latest result · 6/14/2026
88%
Chance to advance
2.0%
Title chance
1910
Model strength rating
Strength rating = the Elo rating the model uses (one input to its probabilities), not an official ranking.
Can Japan still advance?
Japan clinches a Round-of-32 place with 4 points (goal difference 0) — 3 more points to go.
- 2W: about 100% chance to advance (finishing #1–2 in the group).
- 1W 1D: about 100% chance to advance (finishing #1–2 in the group).
- 1W 1L: about 100% chance to advance (finishing #2–3 in the group).
Group F table
| # | Team | P | Pts | GD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sweden | 1 | 3 | +4 | 95% |
| 2 |  Japan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 67% |
| 3 |  Netherlands | 1 | 1 | 0 | 67% |
| 4 |  Tunisia | 1 | 0 | -4 | 37% |
Top two advance directly; third place enters the best-thirds race for 8 spots. Advance chance from 10,000 Monte Carlo sims.
Next match
ATunisia--:--Recent form
Official squad
Head coach: Hajime Moriyasu (Japan)Avg age: 26.9Avg height: 182 cmTotal caps: 823
Goalkeepers (3)
| # | Player | Club | Age | Caps | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUZUKI Zion | Parma (ITA) | 23 | 26 | 0 |
| 12 | OSAKO Keisuke | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (JPN) | 26 | 11 | 0 |
| 23 | HAYAKAWA Tomoki | Kashima Antlers (JPN) | 27 | 4 | 0 |
Defenders (9)
| # |
|---|
10,000 Monte Carlo simulations (public forecasting data + Elo), refreshed hourly