It was a tense affair on the pitch as Croatia edged out Ghana 2-1, a result that felt anything but straightforward despite the pre-match expectations. Our model had pegged a home win at 63% probability, and while that outcome ultimately arrived, the ripple effects on the tournament landscape were far from conventional.
What it means
The most striking movement in our model follows this encounter. For Croatia, the path forward has tightened; their probability to advance fell from 91% to 73%. Interestingly, the model now sees a slight boost in their potential to go all the way, with their champion probability rising from 1% to 2%.
Ghana’s situation presents a fascinating contrast. Despite the loss, their grip on the next round remains absolute, with their advancement probability holding steady at 100%. Perhaps most surprising is the jump in their title prospects; even in defeat, the model adjusted their champion probability from <1% to 3%. It appears the nature of their performance against Croatia carried enough weight to shift the long-term forecast in their favor.
Looking ahead
With the Group Stage intensity reaching a fever pitch, both sides now look toward the remaining fixtures to cement their standing. Croatia must now navigate their path with a slightly narrower margin for error, while Ghana will look to build on the resilience they displayed today to capitalize on their improved standing in the eyes of our model.
To see how this result ripples through the rest of the bracket, check out the latest World Cup Forecast or use our Group L Calculator to map out every possible scenario for Croatia and Ghana. For a full breakdown of the statistics, visit the official match page.