The script was clear, and Belgium followed it to the letter. In a match where the pre-game forecast already favored the visitors at 64%, the actual result was a clinical 1-5 victory that left little doubt about which side holds the momentum in Group G.
What it means
This result is a monumental shift for both nations according to our model. Belgium has effectively secured their future, moving from an 86% chance to advance to a certainty of 100%. Their title probability remains stable at 1%, reflecting the long road ahead in the tournament, but the immediate goal is achieved.
For New Zealand, the math is now essentially impossible. Coming into the fixture with a 13% chance to reach the next stage, that figure has plummeted to <1% following the heavy defeat. Their chance of winning the trophy remains at <1%, unchanged from where it stood before the opening whistle.
While Belgium marches forward with confidence, New Zealand must now look toward regrouping after a challenging outing. The gulf in quality on the pitch was reflected in the final scoreline, confirming the pre-match expectation that Belgium would dictate the pace of this group.
As the group stage reaches its conclusion, every goal and point becomes vital for the remaining participants. You can track how these shifting dynamics impact the rest of the field in our full group forecast or use our interactive group calculator to see how the final standings might unfold for New Zealand and Belgium.