The script has been flipped in Group D. In a result that caught our model off guard, Paraguay secured a hard-fought 0-1 victory over Turkey, defying the 29% win probability they carried into the match. While Turkey entered the contest as the favorites with a 43% win probability, it was the away side that walked away with the points, leaving the group standings in a state of total upheaval.
What it means
This result is catastrophic for Turkey's campaign. Their probability to advance has plummeted from 49% to <1%, effectively ending their hopes of progression. Similarly, their chance to be crowned champion has dipped from 1% to <1%, as they now face a mountain they cannot climb.
Conversely, the night belongs to Paraguay. By securing this victory, their probability to advance has seen a massive surge, climbing from 41% to 78%. While their prospects of hoisting the trophy remain at <1%, they are now firmly in the driver's seat to reach the next stage of the tournament.
Looking ahead
For Paraguay, the mission is clear: build on this momentum and solidify their position at the top of the table. For Turkey, the focus shifts to reflecting on a missed opportunity that has all but extinguished their dreams in this competition.
Check out the full match details or explore how this changes the landscape for Turkey and Paraguay in our updated forecast.